Economic chaos is not normal
People keep calling the current commercial environment “weird.” Tariffs announced and reversed in the same week. AI replacing junior analysts faster than colleges can graduate them.
“Weird” is manageable. “Weird” is cocktail party conversation. But weird is not the problem.
“Dangerous” is the problem. And dangerous is coming.
What 2018 Taught Me
In 2018, I was leading an importer when tariffs hit. We waited a bit for Washington to find its sanity. Then we gave customers 30 days’ notice before raising prices. Why?
It felt like the courteous thing to do.
We got the price increase. Every penny. But the scramble was brutal. Tense calls with suppliers, complex pricing sheets analyzed, keeping stakeholders in the conversation. We did it right, but because we expected sanity, we did it late. And late is painful.
The lesson I would give my younger self: Do not wait for the math to become clear. Do not wish for the deciders to decide better. Imagine the scenarios before the chaos arrives. We were so busy waiting for normal to return that we never asked the harder questions in advance. Which of our products could survive a sustained tariff? Which customers would stay if we raised prices 20%?
We found out all this by living through it. I would rather have known before the call came.
Today, two storms are forming. The question is whether we ask the hard questions about them now or wait.
Storm One: The Tariff Casino
Since April 2025, tariff policy has been chaos. Rates on Chinese goods have swung from 10% to 145% and back. Courts have declared tariffs illegal while the tariffs stay in effect. No one can predict next month, let alone next year.
The questions to ask now: If tariffs on our key inputs double and stay doubled, which products remain profitable? Which customers will absorb a price increase? Which will walk? Is our core strong enough to survive a prolonged trade war, or are we hoping for a truce?
Storm Two: The AI Squeeze
The Financial Times recently reported that entry-level roles requiring a degree have dropped by two-thirds since ChatGPT launched. Companies are saving real money by replacing junior staff with AI.
When savings add up, someone always asks the next question: What if we cut prices to grab market share?
The questions to ask now: What if a competitor with AI-driven cost savings cuts prices by, say, 15%? Will our core customers stay loyal at that differential? Can we offer something AI cannot replicate? Or are we the ones who should be grabbing share before someone else does?
The Core Is the Lifeboat
In stable times, companies can gradually drift from their core. They add products, chase customers who do not fit, dilute focus.
In dangerous times, the core is the lifeboat. No drift allowed. Know which products actually make money. Know which customers will stay when the storms hit.
In 2018, at least briefly, I waited for normal. We survived, but the scramble taught me something: the pain is in the suddenness.
At least two storms are on the horizon. You do not want to learn what your core is by living through them. Plan the core now.
#turnarounds #coreproducts #core customers
(The questions I wish I had asked in 2018 are the ones I now help companies answer. Core Turnaround Strategy is the method. Out now on Amazon, with a foreword by Verne Harnish.)